How Mondial’s prediction model is doing against the real 2026 results — every call is scored from what the model knew before each match. How the model works →
Called 69 of 104 results, group stage to the final
44/72 group · 25/32 knockout — beating a blind guess by 0.199 log-loss.
log-loss 0.896 vs 1.099 baseline · Brier 0.532 · lower is better.
Log-loss and Brier both reward being confident and right and punish being confident and wrong — lower scores mean sharper, better-calibrated calls. The baseline is a no-skill three-way guess from the base rates (ln 3).
When the model says 70%, those teams should win about 70% of the time. Compare Predicted against Observed in each band — the closer they track, the better-calibrated the model.
| Band | Predicted | Observed | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 8% | 0% | 9 |
| 10–20% | 16% | 13% | 32 |
| 20–30% | 26% | 23% | 91 |
| 30–40% | 35% | 25% | 20 |
| 40–50% | 46% | 59% | 22 |
| 50–60% | 55% | 61% | 18 |
| 60–70% | 64% | 75% | 16 |
| 70–80% | 73% | 75% | 8 |
log-loss 0.501 vs 0.693 baseline · Brier 0.328 · lower is better.
Knockout matches are decisive — extra time and penalties included — so each is graded on which side won, a two-way call. The no-skill baseline is a coin flip (ln 2 ≈ 0.69), not the three-way ln 3 above.
| Band | Predicted | Observed | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 55% | 73% | 11 |
| 60–70% | 62% | 56% | 9 |
| 70–80% | 75% | 100% | 6 |
| 80–90% | 83% | 100% | 5 |
| 90–100% | 90% | 100% | 1 |
| Stage | Match | Score | Home | Draw | Away | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group | Mexico v South Africa | 2–0 | 71% | 20% | 9% | Correct call |
| Group | South Korea v Czech Republic | 2–1 | 42% | 28% | 30% | Correct call |
| Group | Canada v Bosnia & Herzegovina | 1–1 | 56% | 26% | 19% | Wrong call |
Brier 0.169 over 48 determined teams (12 groups complete).
Through, despite the model’s low odds.
Out, despite the model’s high odds.
The model’s pre-tournament favourites — champion odds from a from-seeds simulation, before a ball was kicked.
| Group |
| USA v Paraguay |
| 4–1 |
| 43% |
| 28% |
| 29% |
| Correct call |
| Group | Qatar v Switzerland | 1–1 | 10% | 21% | 69% | Wrong call |
| Group | Brazil v Morocco | 1–1 | 47% | 28% | 25% | Wrong call |
| Group | Haiti v Scotland | 0–1 | 17% | 25% | 57% | Correct call |
| Group | Australia v Turkey | 2–0 | 35% | 29% | 37% | Wrong call |
| Group | Germany v Curaçao | 7–1 | 75% | 18% | 7% | Correct call |
| Group | Netherlands v Japan | 2–2 | 39% | 29% | 33% | Wrong call |
| Group | Ivory Coast v Ecuador | 1–0 | 24% | 27% | 48% | Wrong call |
| Group | Sweden v Tunisia | 5–1 | 50% | 27% | 23% | Correct call |
| Group | Spain v Cape Verde | 0–0 | 75% | 18% | 7% | Wrong call |
| Group | Belgium v Egypt | 1–1 | 52% | 27% | 21% | Wrong call |
| Group | Saudi Arabia v Uruguay | 1–1 | 14% | 24% | 62% | Wrong call |
| Group | Iran v New Zealand | 2–2 | 53% | 26% | 20% | Wrong call |
| Group | France v Senegal | 3–1 | 53% | 26% | 21% | Correct call |
| Group | Iraq v Norway | 1–4 | 15% | 24% | 61% | Correct call |
| Group | Argentina v Algeria | 3–0 | 64% | 23% | 13% | Correct call |
| Group | Austria v Jordan | 3–1 | 48% | 27% | 24% | Correct call |
| Group | Portugal v DR Congo | 1–1 | 63% | 23% | 13% | Wrong call |
| Group | England v Croatia | 4–2 | 45% | 28% | 27% | Correct call |
| Group | Ghana v Panama | 1–0 | 20% | 26% | 54% | Wrong call |
| Group | Uzbekistan v Colombia | 1–3 | 17% | 25% | 58% | Correct call |
| Group | Czech Republic v South Africa | 1–1 | 51% | 27% | 22% | Wrong call |
| Group | Switzerland v Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4–1 | 54% | 26% | 20% | Correct call |
| Group | Canada v Qatar | 6–0 | 66% | 22% | 12% | Correct call |
| Group | Mexico v South Korea | 1–0 | 50% | 27% | 23% | Correct call |
| Group | USA v Australia | 2–0 | 37% | 29% | 34% | Correct call |
| Group | Scotland v Morocco | 0–1 | 32% | 28% | 40% | Correct call |
| Group | Brazil v Haiti | 3–0 | 70% | 21% | 9% | Correct call |
| Group | Turkey v Paraguay | 0–1 | 41% | 28% | 31% | Wrong call |
| Group | Netherlands v Sweden | 5–1 | 50% | 27% | 23% | Correct call |
| Group | Germany v Ivory Coast | 2–1 | 50% | 27% | 23% | Correct call |
| Group | Ecuador v Curaçao | 0–0 | 70% | 21% | 10% | Wrong call |
| Group | Tunisia v Japan | 0–4 | 13% | 23% | 64% | Correct call |
| Group | Spain v Saudi Arabia | 4–0 | 75% | 18% | 7% | Correct call |
| Group | Belgium v Iran | 0–0 | 46% | 28% | 26% | Wrong call |
| Group | Uruguay v Cape Verde | 2–2 | 56% | 26% | 18% | Wrong call |
| Group | New Zealand v Egypt | 1–3 | 25% | 28% | 47% | Correct call |
| Group | Argentina v Austria | 2–0 | 59% | 25% | 17% | Correct call |
| Group | France v Iraq | 3–0 | 72% | 19% | 8% | Correct call |
| Group | Norway v Senegal | 3–2 | 42% | 28% | 30% | Correct call |
| Group | Jordan v Algeria | 1–2 | 28% | 28% | 44% | Correct call |
| Group | Portugal v Uzbekistan | 5–0 | 58% | 25% | 17% | Correct call |
| Group | England v Ghana | 0–0 | 74% | 19% | 8% | Wrong call |
| Group | Panama v Croatia | 0–1 | 21% | 27% | 53% | Correct call |
| Group | Colombia v DR Congo | 1–0 | 62% | 24% | 14% | Correct call |
| Group | Switzerland v Canada | 2–1 | 37% | 29% | 35% | Correct call |
| Group | Bosnia & Herzegovina v Qatar | 3–1 | 49% | 27% | 24% | Correct call |
| Group | Scotland v Brazil | 0–3 | 22% | 27% | 52% | Correct call |
| Group | Morocco v Haiti | 4–2 | 64% | 23% | 13% | Correct call |
| Group | Czech Republic v Mexico | 0–3 | 15% | 24% | 60% | Correct call |
| Group | South Africa v South Korea | 1–0 | 17% | 25% | 58% | Wrong call |
| Group | Curaçao v Ivory Coast | 0–2 | 14% | 24% | 62% | Correct call |
| Group | Ecuador v Germany | 2–1 | 27% | 28% | 45% | Wrong call |
| Group | Japan v Sweden | 1–1 | 50% | 27% | 23% | Wrong call |
| Group | Tunisia v Netherlands | 1–3 | 11% | 22% | 68% | Correct call |
| Group | Turkey v USA | 3–2 | 25% | 28% | 47% | Wrong call |
| Group | Paraguay v Australia | 0–0 | 31% | 28% | 41% | Wrong call |
| Group | Norway v France | 1–4 | 25% | 28% | 47% | Correct call |
| Group | Senegal v Iraq | 5–0 | 55% | 26% | 19% | Correct call |
| Group | Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia | 0–0 | 40% | 28% | 32% | Wrong call |
| Group | Uruguay v Spain | 0–1 | 18% | 25% | 57% | Correct call |
| Group | Egypt v Iran | 1–1 | 33% | 28% | 39% | Wrong call |
| Group | New Zealand v Belgium | 1–5 | 15% | 24% | 61% | Correct call |
| Group | Panama v England | 0–2 | 13% | 23% | 63% | Correct call |
| Group | Croatia v Ghana | 2–1 | 63% | 23% | 14% | Correct call |
| Group | Colombia v Portugal | 0–0 | 37% | 29% | 35% | Wrong call |
| Group | DR Congo v Uzbekistan | 3–1 | 33% | 29% | 38% | Wrong call |
| Group | Algeria v Austria | 3–3 | 31% | 28% | 41% | Wrong call |
| Group | Jordan v Argentina | 1–3 | 8% | 19% | 73% | Correct call |
| R32 | South Africa v Canada | 0–1 | 23% | — | 77% | Correct call |
| R32 | Brazil v Japan | 2–1 | 59% | — | 41% | Correct call |
| R32 | Germany v Paraguay | 1–1 (3–4 pens) | 65% | — | 35% | Wrong call |
| R32 | Netherlands v Morocco | 1–1 (2–3 pens) | 60% | — | 40% | Wrong call |
| R32 | Ivory Coast v Norway | 1–2 | 34% | — | 66% | Correct call |
| R32 | France v Sweden | 3–0 | 82% | — | 18% | Correct call |
| R32 | Mexico v Ecuador | 2–0 | 64% | — | 36% | Correct call |
| R32 | England v DR Congo | 2–1 | 82% | — | 18% | Correct call |
| R32 | Belgium v Senegal | 3–2 | 54% | — | 46% | Correct call |
| R32 | USA v Bosnia & Herzegovina | 2–0 | 77% | — | 23% | Correct call |
| R32 | Spain v Austria | 3–0 | 78% | — | 22% | Correct call |
| R32 | Portugal v Croatia | 2–1 | 59% | — | 41% | Correct call |
| R32 | Switzerland v Algeria | 2–0 | 61% | — | 39% | Correct call |
| R32 | Australia v Egypt | 1–1 (2–4 pens) | 62% | — | 38% | Wrong call |
| R32 | Argentina v Cape Verde | 3–2 | 90% | — | 10% | Correct call |
| R32 | Colombia v Ghana | 1–0 | 88% | — | 12% | Correct call |
| R16 | Canada v Morocco | 0–3 | 44% | — | 56% | Correct call |
| R16 | Paraguay v France | 0–1 | 20% | — | 80% | Correct call |
| R16 | Brazil v Norway | 1–2 | 58% | — | 42% | Wrong call |
| R16 | Mexico v England | 2–3 | 47% | — | 53% | Correct call |
| R16 | Portugal v Spain | 0–1 | 36% | — | 64% | Correct call |
| R16 | USA v Belgium | 1–4 | 50% | — | 50% | Wrong call |
| R16 | Argentina v Egypt | 3–2 | 86% | — | 14% | Correct call |
| R16 | Switzerland v Colombia | 0–0 (4–3 pens) | 39% | — | 61% | Wrong call |
| QF | France v Morocco | 2–0 | 71% | — | 29% | Correct call |
| QF | Spain v Belgium | 2–1 | 71% | — | 29% | Correct call |
| QF | Norway v England | 1–2 | 39% | — | 61% | Correct call |
| QF | Argentina v Switzerland | 3–1 | 74% | — | 26% | Correct call |
| SF | France v Spain | 0–2 | 47% | — | 53% | Correct call |
| SF | England v Argentina | 1–2 | 41% | — | 59% | Correct call |
| 3rd | France v England | 4–6 | 54% | — | 46% | Wrong call |
| Final | Spain v Argentina | 1–0 | 52% | — | 48% | Correct call |
Knockout matches (Round of 32 onward) are graded on which side won the tie — penalties included — so Home / Away are the model’s two-way advance probabilities, not win / draw / loss. A shootout is rated a draw for team strength (penalties don’t measure quality), so a side can win the tie without its rating rising.