The model’s predicted path to the trophy, Round of 32 to the Final — each tie filled in from team strength and win probability. Real knockout results lock in green as they’re played; switch to Your picks to override any tie. How these are calculated →
| Team | Win cup | Reach final | Win probability bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 100% | 100% |
Chance of winning the cup / reaching the final, from simulating the rest of the tournament 10,000 times — a model estimate, not betting odds. These 1 teams account for ~100% of simulated titles.
Positions reflect the current standings and shift as more group games are played. Dashed = provisional; green ✓ = group finished.
This tree follows the favourite at every tie — one “chalk” path, not the overall title pick. Because upsets compound, the team most likely to actually win the cup (Spain, 100%) can differ from these projected finalists — see the title odds above.
Played knockout matches show the real result (green); the rest is predicted. Tap any unplayed team to send them through (tap a winner again to undo); your picks recompute the rounds ahead and are saved on this device.